29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology


The association of outgoing radiation with variations of precipitation implications for global warming

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. Schwartz

We have analyzed 21 years (1984-2004) of ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) outgoing solar (albedo) and longwave infrared (IR) radiation (often referred to as OLR) on various distance (local to global) and time scales (1 day to decadal). We have studied how the outgoing radiation parameters of IR and albedo change with variations of precipitation from the NOAA-NCEP reanalysis data on a wide variety of space and time scales.

We do not find the expected inhibition of radiation energy loss to space from the extra water vapor and cloud changes which are associated with enhanced precipitation. The expected CO2 induced extra rainfall may thus not cause the anticipated amounts of future global warming (2-5oC for a doubling of CO2) that have been projected by the many GCMs. If this result is further verified by more extensive analysis, then we will have much less global warming than has been projected by the models, the media, the UN, and the many environmental alarmist groups.

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Session 15A, Tropical Climatology and Climate Change I
Friday, 14 May 2010, 8:00 AM-9:45 AM, Arizona Ballroom 6

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