Effect of SST and ENSO on western North Pacific tropical cyclone landfall via changes in genesis
Emmi Yonekura, Columbia University, New York, NY; and T. M. Hall
Evolution in landfall rates of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) is of major concern to coastal populations and policy makers. We are developing a statistical model of western North Pacific TCs to estimate the sensitivity of East-Asia landfall to large-scale climate state. The model is based on the 1945-2007 International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship track data. TC genesis is modeled by local Poisson regression on basin-averaged SST and ENSO state with optimized averaging length-scale, resulting in a climate-sensitive spatially-resolved field of formation rates. For TC propagation, we compute local means and variances of 6-hourly displacements using optimized averaging kernels and treat the residuals as autoregressive. We use the model to generate 1000s of years of stochastic TCs for a range of fixed SST and ENSO values, from which we compute the SST- and ENSO-dependent regional landfall rates.
Session 11D, Catastrophe Modeling Strategies and Applications
Wednesday, 12 May 2010, 3:30 PM-5:15 PM, Tucson Salon A-C
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