River level and flood forecasting service for the new millennium.
Craig M. Edwards, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service Chanhassen, MN
Floods have a major impact on the economic and social stability of the nation. Major floods impart disruption of commerce, disorganization of communities and result in a long-term recovery process. Two historic and media focused weather disasters of the 1990's were the devastating flood in the Midwest in 1993 and the Red River of the North flood of 1997. Annually, it is estimated that inland flooding claims more than 130 lives and property losses exceeding $4 billion.
The National Weather Service prepares hydrologic forecasts for almost 4,000 locations across the United States. Emergency management officials at the local and state levels use the forecasts to fight floods, evacuate residents and to take other measures to mitigate the impact of flooding.
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) is a new, but essential component of the Weather Service's climate, water and weather forecast services. This presentation will demonstrate the web-based suite of information-rich products depicting the magnitude and uncertainty of occurrence for hydrologic events from hours to days to months in advance. These text and graphical products are useful tools for many water resource officials and emergency managers.
AHPS was developed using modern technologies such as Geostationary (GOES) satellites, Doppler Radar, weather observation stations, super computers, and the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). The AHPS graphics provide probabilistic forecast for stage, volume and flow of the river. These graphics narrate the uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts, while presenting valuable information for contingency planning.
Craig M. Edwards, National Weather Service, 1733 Lake Drive W., Chanhassen, MN 55317, 952-361-6670 x 642
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