Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. We quantified the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations, such as the complex topography and the configuration of wind turbines.