Wednesday, 6 August 2003: 5:15 PM
Use of doppler radar data for hurricane initialization and prediction
A radar-based hurricane initialization scheme has been developed
for high resolution numerical models.
The newly developed initialization scheme
utilizes the bounded derivative initialization (BDI) in conjunction with
the vorticity method to accurately determine the hurricane vortex dynamic
structure based on the single Doppler radar wind fields retrieved from the
ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) technique. The GBVTD
technique retrieves the reliable rotational wind and vorticity of a
tropical cyclone (TC) from single Doppler radar data. Based on the
momentum conservation, the vorticity method derives the hurricane
divergent wind/vertical velocity from the high temporal and spatial
vorticity variations retrieved by GBVTD.
The divergent wind inferred dynamically and the rotational wind
observed from single Doppler radar data form the total wind field,
including the vertical velocity in a hurricane vortex.
BDI is used to smoothly insert the derived hurricane vortex into
environmental flows defined by forecast fields from larger scale models.
The MM5 four-dimensional data assimilation system (FDDA) is used to nudge to the
derived smooth kinematic wind fields in order to retrieve unobserved fields
such as temperature and moisture fields. The balanced hurricane vortex with
thermodynamic and moisture fields is used as the initial condition for the
simulation of hurricane Danny with high resolution MM5/WRF models.
This hurricane initialization scheme has been tested by assimilating
the wind fields obtained from GBVTD analysis of Hurricane Danny (1997) into
1.5 km MM5 model simulations. Numerical experiments show substantial
improvements on track and intensity forecasts, in particular, wind fields,
can be obtained by the initialization scheme based on radar observations.
For examples, after the initialization,the simulated hourly track closely
follows that of observed for a period of time. The intensity forecast of
winds improves by more than 10 m/s compared with those without
initialization.
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