Sunday, 10 August 2003: 3:30 PM
Forecasting with Confidence
As deterministic forecast models reach their maximum capability for forecast skill, especially in the 4-9 day range, one has to rely on other methods to comfortably predict weather conditions. This topic was heavily discussed in the recent study conducted by the National Research Council of the National Academies of Science entitled, “Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Services.” So much so that the Committee recommended that “The NWS should continue to adopt and improve probabilistic methods for communicating uncertainties in the data and forecasts where such methods are accepted as scientifically valid.”
Hence, the world is changing and rather than waiting until the numerical models have near-perfect skill scores, industry is already moving forward to generate tools to quantify the uncertainties in the model data. These tools will assist Broadcasters, and others, in communicating with confidence the likelihood of certain events. This presentation will cover the science that makes this possible, interpretation of the information for operational use and an interactive tool to lighten their workload.