Nowcasting of storm duration

Cessation of heavy precipitation or other severe weather is a critical forecast for emergency services and many other people that is rarely made. Radar-based nowcasting systems regularly predict the onset of severe weather or the track of the center of a storm cell, but could just as easily be used to forecast the passing of the end of a storm. Not only this, but the forecast of the end of a period of precipitation is part of the prediction of storm duration that can be used in a prediction of total storm precipitation.

This paper presents results of a comparison of the velocity of the storm center and that of the trailing edge that shows that there is a significant difference between the two, such that the rear edge velocity should be considered in a forecast of storm duration. Further to this, forecasts of storm duration made using the rear edge velocity are compared with hourly precipitation accumulations to discover whether or not a storm duration forecast is a good proxy for a precipitation forecast.