Summary evaluations of the strengths and weaknesses of the different methods will be provided for the purpose of determining optimum procedures for combining techniques to produce 0-6 h nowcasts of convection. Methods for blending techniques will be suggested based on the synoptic situation, organization and scale of the convective systems. Also presented are human derived forecasts prepared by a forecaster observing all methods.
Radar extrapolation techniques were based on both cell and area trackers. The 4 km NCAR version of WRF was run at 00 UTC each day. MM5 used a nested grid with an inner domain of 3.3 km and it was run every 3 h using observational nudging. Forecast VDRAS is a 4DVAR cloud resolving model that was cycled every 30 min producing 0-1h forecasts of precipitation. The RUC (Rapid Update Cycle) was a 12 km version of the operational RUC that has been modified to produce probability precipitation forecasts. An experimental version of the National Convective Weather Forecast Product called NCWF6 produced 1-6 h probability forecasts and was updated every 10 min, it utilized both echo extrapolation and heuristic methods.