Convection Initiation in Germany's Black Forest

The Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS) will occur during the summer of 2007 in southwestern Germany and eastern France. COPS is aimed at advancing the quality of forecasts of orographically-induced convective precipitation with the use of 4-D observations and modeling of its life cycle. One of the components of improving quantitative precipitation forecasting skill is better understanding of convection initiation processes.

In preparation for COPS, a 7-year European radar climatology was performed in the Black Forest region. The COPS region is a hot spot for convection initiation and precipitation. Over 71% of the summer days had convective rainfall. Results show a clear diurnal trend with a maximum in initiation events in the early afternoon. This suggests a relationship between convection initiation and boundary layer convergence zones, topographically-induced and other. Doppler on Wheels radar observations are planned during COPS to aid in identifying the important pre-convective features, their relationship to the orography of the region and their impact on convection initiation.

A summary of the radar climatological study will be presented, along with preliminary results from COPS.