Integration of Probabilistic Weather Information with Air Traffic Management Decision-Making Tools—A Conceptual Vision for the Future

Weather conditions can seriously impact aircraft operations, which places great importance on how weather-related information is collected, managed, disseminated, and utilized in the air traffic management decision-making process. The primary role of weather information is to provide guidance where and when aircraft may fly safely. Weather forecasts have to be translated into information that is directly relevant to the aviation users and service providers. The uncertainty of weather forecasts has to be accounted for as well in the risk assessment and decision-making process. Moreover, the expected increase in air traffic flow requires largely automated, machine-to-machine communicating decision-making tools to effectively assist the human managing the air space.

A conceptual vision of the type of probabilistic weather information relevant for aviation, with a particular focus on detection and short-term (0 – 8 h) forecasts severe convective storm hazards, and how that information will be integrated with air traffic management decision-making tools, will be presented. This vision builds upon new conceptual approaches to air traffic management in the future and what kind of weather information may be needed to support them.