Lightning threat nowcasting with polarimetric weather radar

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning causes nearly a billion dollars of property damage and approximately 90 fatalities per year in the United States, second only to flooding. Yet the lightning warning facilities as implemented provide limited warning time at best and cannot provide any warning for a first strike. A significant source of lightning concern is sporting activities that are played in open areas such as baseball, softball, football, soccer and golf. Research confirms this as playgrounds and parks account for nearly 27% of lightning fatalities, more than any other venue. Reduction of fatalities and injuries require accurate and timely warnings of the cloud to ground lightning threat. A technique to nowcast cloud to ground lightning threat is presented using polarimetric radar and a simple storm electrification model. The technique provides 10 – 20 minutes warning lead time that can significantly reduce fatalities and injuries due to first strike events.