Analyzing the Agricultural Impact and Recovery from Major Drought Events in Kansas

Agricultural droughts occur when vegetation experiences stress due to deficient soil moisture. As this condition develops, the plant canopy experiences stress, leading to the loss of green leaves and reduced yield. This period is represented by variables that quantify the imbalance between water supply and demand such as precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, temperature, soil moisture, evaporative stress, etc. Previous research on agricultural drought tends to focus on the impact of drought at the time of the drought, rather than the environmental recovery post drought. This study will consider the impact of major droughts from 2001 to 2021, with special focus on how the cropland recovers and the microclimate following the drought event. We will utilize MODIS NDVI, LST and land cover data, along with PRISM precipitation and air temperature data to identify significant drought periods during the growing season, and analyze the land-surface impact and response from a major drought. We will determine a baseline for drought using the years before a major drought and measure impact based on the deviation of variables such as precipitation and air temperature from the baseline values. Impact and recovery will be measured as a function of crop type and NDVI. We will examine the resulting trends in crop yield in the years following those major events and determine the processes that are contributing to the trends. This analysis will add to our understanding of the potential long term consequences of drought in agricultural regions.