Cyclones, cones, and confusion: Forecasters' perspectives on hurricane graphics

Many networks and their affiliate stations are adapting to the latest technologies including high definition products bringing with it new graphic and animation capabilities. Although these new capabilities may enhance the viewing experience, we need to take a step back and ensure that forecasters understand why they are communicating these particular graphics. Taking away the design aspect of graphics, do forecasters have a main objective(s) for their graphics? For example, there is growing concern in the tropical meteorology community that decision makers, emergency managers, and the public are misinterpreting critical hazard messages regarding the track of a hurricane, commonly referred to as the “cone of uncertainty.” As a visual risk communication tool, these graphics play an important role in the few days prior to a hurricane. As a result, hurricane forecasters and broadcasters intend for the public and emergency managers to understand the meaning of this graphic. However, this study shows that forecasters do not have one distinct meaning. This study focuses on the meaning of the ‘cone of uncertainty' as stated by leading hurricane specialists, broadcast meteorologists, as well as government officials. Interviews were conducted with these key players to determine the objective of the graphic. Results show that there are three main goals to the graphic, communicating uncertainty, certainty (confidence), and risk. Depending on which goal a broadcaster emphasizes, the public may hear three very different messages, which may be a leading cause of public confusion. Additionally, all interviewees stressed the importance of the public listening to their local emergency managers, rather than making a decision solely based on the graphic. If this is another goal, then it is possible that graphics need to highlight this point as well. Lastly, another theme emerging is that the interviewees tend to group their audience into one public. Just as many forecasters suggest that one graphic will never tell the whole hurricane story, neither will the many “publics” understand one graphic. It is important, especially for broadcasters, to recognize that their “public” may include many different levels of uncertainty or risk understanding. In response to all of this, more attention is needed to understand how we make, design and communicate our weather graphics.