Communicating uncertainty in weather forecasts: Results from a survey of the U.S. public

Motivated by both scientific advances and user interest, the weather prediction community is gradually evolving towards more effective communication of weather forecast uncertainty information. Effective uncertainty communication is important because forecasters want to provide usable forecasts that accurately reflect their knowledge about future weather, and because users want reliable forecast information they can understand and can use in decision making.

To improve understanding of what forecast uncertainty information to provide to users and how to effectively communicate that information, we conducted a nationwide, controlled-access Internet survey examining the public's perspectives on everyday weather forecast uncertainty and uncertainty information. Topics investigated in the survey include people's: (1) confidence in weather forecasts; (2) inference of uncertainty into deterministic forecasts; (3) interpretation of probability of precipitation forecasts; (4) preferences for deterministic versus uncertainty-explicit forecast information; (5) preferences for uncertainty communication formats; and (6) use of forecast uncertainty information in decision making. This presentation will discuss important issues in communicating weather forecast uncertainty, key survey findings, and potential implications of the results for the broadcast meteorology community.