The “Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak” of February 5-6, 2008, SPC Forecasts and Historical Perspective

The widespread and deadly severe weather episode that developed across the south-central United States on February 5, through the morning hours on February 6, 2008, will be examined from both a forecast and historical perspective. The latest death-toll figure of 57 puts this tornado outbreak in 12th place among the deadliest tornado outbreaks since 1950. The lead-time of nearly 6 days in outlook forecasts prior to the event is unprecedented with respect to other major severe weather outbreaks in recent years.

The event will be examined from a forecast perspective by using the outlooks and forecasts issued by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Key features of the synoptic pattern will be highlighted and used to generate meteorological analogs using daily North American Reanalysis data since 1979. An evaluation of both deterministic and ensemble model forecasts used by SPC forecasters will also be performed. A review of the probabilistic severe weather forecast information disseminated by SPC will be described and discussed in its climatological context.

The impact of the tornado episode on the lives of people across Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama will be examined. In an effort to resolve the paradox of why so many lives where lost when the forecast/warning system worked so well, fatality circumstances and totals will be reviewed and compared with other major tornado outbreaks occurring since 1950.