On the role of radar in an Optimal Observing System for Short-Range Prediction of Severe Convective Storms

This paper provides an overview of recent successes using advanced methods for assimilation of Doppler radar and other remote sensing data into convectively permitting NWP models to achieve a one-hour probabilistic “Warn On Forecast” (WoF) capability. As recommended in several reports from the National Research Council and instrumentation workshops, profiling systems are best designed to monitor rapid changes in the local severe convective environment, notably temporal changes in moist static stability and shear. Weather radars provide critical information about internal storm structure and processes, but do not observe these environmental features, even upon considering thermodynamic retrieval.

Current challenges of relying entirely on radar data assimilation towards meeting the WoF goal are addressed. Also to be summarized are demonstrated and/or potential impacts of both current and planned ground-based profiling systems (microwave and infrared radiometers, Doppler wind profilers and wind lidars, and water vapor lidars), satellite advanced imaging and hyperspectral sounders, and dense in situ measurements of the local storm environment gained from use of unmanned aircraft. Real-case studies using Doppler radar and profiling system data will be presented, along with the results of Observing System Simulation Experiments for planned systems from the ground, aircraft, and satellites.