Recorded presentation2.2
Winter 2009-2010: The AO, El Nino, and the LRC
Gary Lezak, Shawnee, KS
In recent years I have been making accurate winter, spring, and summer forecasts on the air using my ground breaking theory Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC). In this presentation I will explain the LRC and introduce some new findings that have helped my weather team make accurate forecasts both short range and up to weeks and months ahead of time. We made an accurate forecast for the winter 2009-2010 and we will show you how it was done. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) was a significant influence during the winter 2009-2010, counteracting El Nino, which should have been a major influence on the weather pattern. But, it is the LRC that we believe is a bigger, broader entity that is only influenced by these other oscillations. LRC stands for Lezak's Recurring Cycle. It was actually named by our NBC Action Weather Bloggers years ago.
Here are the main points of the LRC: • The weather pattern sets up every fall between October 1st and November 10th • This pattern then cycles and repeats regularly through winter, spring and into summer • Every year is unique • The LRC can be used to make accurate forecasts both for the next day and seasonally
I have been monitoring weather patterns for over two decades now and sometime in the early 1990s I noticed storm systems that would occur in the early part of autumn seemed to repeat over and over again at regular intervals through that season. By the mid 1990s I noticed that it wasn't just a storm or two, but the entire pattern that seemed to be cycling. Long wave troughs and ridges that set up in early fall become the major “long term” long wave troughs and ridges the rest of the season. The ridge and trough combinations moving through across the northern hemisphere are all part of an overall pattern we call the LRC. And now after years of watching these weather patterns develop and cycle we have developed a technique that allows our weather team to make accurate medium and long range forecasts. In my presentation I will do a recap of winter 2009-2010 and introduce the audience to the LRC and the major influences and new findings this year.
Session 2, Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions
Thursday, 24 June 2010, 9:30 AM-10:30 AM, Napoleon III
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