Seasonal-to-interannual climate prediction: current capabilities and new directions

This talk provides on overview of current operational seasonal-to-interannual prediction capabilities with an emphasis on El Nino forecasting and its impacts. We review how forecasts are made including a basics of forecast initialization and model formulation, how forecast quality is evaluated particularly from the perspective of how forecast information is used and how forecast information is made available. The review of current forecasting capabilities includes a discussion of the strengths and weakness of current multi-model strategies, and a discussion of how forecast technology is expected to evolve over the next 5-10 years. Finally, current understanding of how climate change may impact El Nino predictability is discussed.