SPC Forecast Workshop - Assessment and Watch Issuance

We will spend the hour going over the process by which SPC forecasters evaluate severe storm potential across the continental United States for a particular severe weather day. This will include an assessment of observational/upper air data and a through review of high resolution numerical model guidance. The latest SPC outlook and mesoscale products for this case will be used as part of the briefing before workshop forecasters will be tasked with deciding on where and when to issue tornado and severe thunderstorm watches.

This case study will include a brief review of tornado climatology, a diagnoses of the ingredients needed for thunderstorm formation, and a review of mesoscale features conducive to tornadogenesis. The challenge for participants will be that the outcome of the event will not be revealed until all workshop forecasters have made a firm decision as to what watches are needed, and where those watches should be placed.