PNOWWA - Probabilistic Nowcasting of Winter Weather for Airports

In the framework of Single European Sky ATM Research SESAR 2020 program, the PNOWWA project will demonstrate very short-term (up to 3 hours nowcast) probabilistic winter weather forecasts based on an extrapolation of movement of weather radar echoes.

Adverse winter weather affects airport handling, capacity and flight safety in different manner and radar data are widely used for aeronautical service provision. Radar derived probabilistic forecasts will be used in ATM applications to support operational planning in surface management and ATM decision making, thereby increasing airport capacity, shortening delays and promoting safety. Compared with deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts offer the possibility to quantifying the uncertainties.

European wide aviation related stakeholders survey, interviews and workshops highlight the nowcasting time range of few hours and the specific user needs as well as impact factors for different probability thresholds.

During recent demonstration phase (winter 2016/2017), northern airports in Finland and alpine airports in Austria are used as PNOWWA testbed. These two selected regions offer the possibility to analyze and improve the radar related forecasting of snowfall intensity considering mesoscale effects such as orography or sea (lake effect snow). Probability forecasts for snow amount and type, occurrence of freezing rain, de-icing weather and visibility decreased by snow fall were presented and validated.

The presentation gives an overview of the PNOWWA project, applied methods and used data. The resulting aeronautical applications and the product layout are shown as well as information of user needs, feedback and the future roadmap for using probabilistic nowcasting of winter weather at airports.

http://pnowwa.fmi.fi