Lessons Learned from the Albert Pike Flash Flood Tragedy of June 11, 2010

During the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, six to eight inches of rain caused a twenty foot rise along the Little Missouri River at the Albert Pike Recreation Area in southwest Montgomery County, Arkansas. An estimated two to three hundred people camping in the area awoke to a rapidly unfolding flash flood situation, with little time to react. Tragically, twenty fatalities resulted despite rescue efforts by emergency personnel.

While this event was preceded by timely Flash Flood Watches and Warnings by the National Weather Service, relaying information to the campgrounds was hindered by the remoteness of the area. Also, this event occurred in the middle of the night while people slept and were not monitoring the weather. Finally, the Little Missouri River is normally serene and unthreatening, and flooding of this magnitude is unprecedented. One hydrologist with the United States Geological Survey estimated this as a 500-year event.

This event epitomizes the current disconnect between warnings and reaction to them that continues to plague forecasters. Timely and accurate watches and warnings preceded the event, yet this became the most deadly single flood event in recorded state history. A meteorological analysis of the event will be presented, followed by discussion on what can be done to improve societal reception and reaction to NWS disseminated products. This discussion will include what has been done by NWS Little Rock and partners in response to this tragic event.