An evaluation of convective warning utilization by the general public

The National Weather Service routinely verifies the lead-time and accuracy of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, but a second and rarely studied element that ultimately influences the role of convective warnings in protecting life and property is the proper utilization of these warnings by the intended audience. The warning success rate (WSR), defined as the percentage of the warned population that receives, correctly interprets, and appropriately responds to a given warning message, measures the effectiveness of the threat communication.

In a large-scale effort to investigate the WSR among the general public, an online survey asked questions focused on the receipt, interpretation, and response of individuals who had experienced severe weather or the threat of severe weather during the 2010 convective season (April–August). Over 1500 individuals across the central and eastern United States responded to the survey following weather events of varying severity, timing, and geographic coverage. Pairing responses with information about each respondent's location in relation to the warning polygon, along with other details about the particular warned storm, allows an evaluation of the WSR for various storm types and demographic groups of respondents. A detailed analysis of participant responses follows a presentation of the study procedure and survey design.