Evacuee perception of landfall location, track, and hazards associated with Hurricane Gustav

Many coastal and inland residents may become confused by the discrepancies between expected tropical cyclone intensity and observed tropical cyclone intensity in the aftermath of a land-falling storm. Often the expected (forecasted) intensity outweighs the observed intensity or vice versa. Much of the explanation in observed damage discrepancy may be attributed to the individual's perceived storm track versus the actual storm track as it applies to their location. Furthermore, the individual may perceive one aspect of a land-falling tropical cyclone to be more hazardous than another at their location when in fact it is not. In this study, evacuees from the path of Hurricane Gustav were surveyed 48 - 20 hours prior to landfall to determine where they anticipated the storm to make landfall, and which meteorological variables would be the most hazardous at their residences. Three regions, Greater New Orleans, Houma, and Lafayette were represented most frequently as determined by zip code data collected from the surveys. In order to assess the discrepancies between perceived and actual storm landfall and track, we discuss different measures of distance error as expressed by a Z score. Thus, we attempt to measure evacuee error and not forecaster error. For storm hazards, we statistically compared individual hazards between regions, such as surge, wind, rain, and tornadoes, to determine if residents accurately perceived the most significant hazard in their region. Results indicate a personal landfall bias in the direction of survey participants' home zip codes. The greater New Orleans area displayed the highest score, followed by greater Lafayette, and Houma. Greater New Orleans and Houma residents were primarily concerned about storm surge, and New Orleans residents had a statistically significant concern about rainfall compared to both regions. Lafayette residents had a statistically significant concern about wind compared to New Orleans residents. The results from Hurricane Gustav provide valuable time sensitive insight regarding the accuracy of perceived threats of evacuees during an evacuation event.