Using the Bufkit visualization tool to assess forecast and warning uncertainty

The Warning Decision Training Branch‘s (WDTB's) mission is to transfer new science, technology, and human factors elements into operations with the goal of improving warning performance. One of WDTB's 2010 research efforts was to better integrate uncertainty into the forecasters' warning decision making process.

WDTB's approach was to provide participating meteorologists with ensemble forecast profiles for 240 point locations within the VORTEX2 research area of the United States Great Plains. To display these ensemble profile forecasts WDTB developed a “next generation” ensemble visualization toolkit by enhancing the WDTB's existing Bufr Forecast Toolkit (BUFKIT). The VORTEX2 version of BUFKIT could visualize these ensemble model outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model using “sounding” displays, plume diagrams, and scatter charts.

Following the VORTEX2 project, WDTB meteorologists took on three goals: expand the ensemble Bufkit forecast domain to the entire CONUS, improve model resolution over existing Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts (SREFs). The final and most challenging goal was to provide forecasters a 16-member ensemble Bufkit solution timely enough so as to fully integrate the information into their operational forecast products.

This presentation will provide details on how the meteorologists met these goals and the lessons they learned in achieving these goals. Sample ensemble Bufkit visualizations used both in the VORTEX2 solutions and CONUS solutions will be provided along with preliminary capabilities and limitations. The presentation will conclude with a demonstration of various displays from this new Bufkit version.