Monday, 28 August 2023
Boundary Waters (Hyatt Regency Minneapolis)
Lightning strikes are not only a threat to human life, but also cause significant social and economic damage. In the Korean Peninsula, the total number of observed lightning strikes in 2021 was 124,447, which is about 7.65% more than the annual average for the past 10 years, and an increase of about 50.57% from 2020. To secure proactive response time against lightning strikes, the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) has been operating a lightning pre-detection model utilizing high-resolution 3-dimenational Radar data since April 2020.
The lightning pre-detection model predicts areas with a high probability of lightning occurrence in real-time by using 3D dual-polarimetric variables(reflectivity(Z), the differential reflectivity(ZDR) and the specific differential phase(KDP)), temperature field, and hydrometeor classification(hail, graupel) data in the regions where supercooled particles and charge layer(-20℃ ≤ T ≤ -10℃) exist and can trigger lightning strikes below 0℃ altitude.
The threshold of the radar detection variables applied in the model is derived from statistical values comparing lighting strikes observed in inland areas of Korean Peninsula over a long period of time with the radar variables at each location. Comparing the lightning pre-detection areas detected by the model and the actual observed lightning data, it was found that lightning occurred in the vicinity of the location within approximately +5 to +50 minutes of the time detected by the model.
To evaluate the performance of the lightning pre-detection model, it was compared and verified with lightning observation data(CG, CC) for precipitation events accompanied by lightning from 2020 to 2022(a total of 213 cases). The model showed an average detection rate POD and BIAS were approximately 0.82 and 3.58, respectively. The lightning detection rate POD accuracy in summer was relatively higher than in other seasons.
The lightning pre-detection model predicts areas with a high probability of lightning occurrence in real-time by using 3D dual-polarimetric variables(reflectivity(Z), the differential reflectivity(ZDR) and the specific differential phase(KDP)), temperature field, and hydrometeor classification(hail, graupel) data in the regions where supercooled particles and charge layer(-20℃ ≤ T ≤ -10℃) exist and can trigger lightning strikes below 0℃ altitude.
The threshold of the radar detection variables applied in the model is derived from statistical values comparing lighting strikes observed in inland areas of Korean Peninsula over a long period of time with the radar variables at each location. Comparing the lightning pre-detection areas detected by the model and the actual observed lightning data, it was found that lightning occurred in the vicinity of the location within approximately +5 to +50 minutes of the time detected by the model.
To evaluate the performance of the lightning pre-detection model, it was compared and verified with lightning observation data(CG, CC) for precipitation events accompanied by lightning from 2020 to 2022(a total of 213 cases). The model showed an average detection rate POD and BIAS were approximately 0.82 and 3.58, respectively. The lightning detection rate POD accuracy in summer was relatively higher than in other seasons.
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