RFC & WFO QPE ANALYSIS & CHALLENGES FOR FLOOD FORECASTING

The most recent enhancements to the MRMS and FLASH datasets have proven extremely useful in analyzing QPE for both River Forecasting and Flash-Flood Forecasting. However, the RFC and WFO still need to perform thorough analysis and subsequent adjustments to ensure accurate forecasts are produced for both River and Flash Flood threats. In addition, radar-based QPE products have significant challenges in accurately representing winter precipitation amounts. Wintertime QPE is especially challenging, but critically important leading into the Spring Flood season each year as it serves as the basis for estimating the snow water equivalent in the snowpack. The Hydrometeorological Analysis & Support (HAS) unit of the NCRFC performs a significant amount of enhancements from the baseline radar-based QPE fields by utilizing NWS COOP and CoCoRaHS data in conjunction with surface observations. The Stage IV data not only is critical to river forecasting, but is also utilized by URMA, and thus the NWS National Blend of Models. Ensuring a quality Stage IV field is critical to the NBM probability of precipitation fields, which are the primary starting point for WFO forecast grids.