Thursday, 31 August 2023
Boundary Waters (Hyatt Regency Minneapolis)
This paper presents the weather radar-based nowcast system over the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Understanding the cloud formation and accurate weather prediction over this region is essential to determine optimal cloud seeding timing and location to enhance the rainfall. Figure 1 shows the location of six C-band weather radars over the UAE with a range circle radius of 150 km. The radars provide data every 6 minutes, and cover all major cities. The Dynamic and Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) nowcast tool is used in the nowcast system to evaluate nowcast over one-hour lead time. It is an area-based nowcast tool that learns the intensity and direction of the storm from the previous radar data and projects them into the future. Figure 2 shows the example of the critical success index (CSI) score of DARTS nowcast from AI radar alone over Al Ain city. The nowcast was generated at 1100 UTC and provided till 1200 UTC on February 26, 2017. The results showed the DARTS has good nowcast skill till 35 minutes and considerable accuracy till one hour. The CSI score was 0.5 until 35 minutes and around 0.45 at a one-hour lead time. The results are promising and encourage developing further advanced nowcast system for the whole UAE with all six radars. For that, we build the composite reflectivity from the six radars at 1 km constant altitude height and 1 km spatial resolution. The nowcast system domain covers approximately 720 km in the longitude direction and 470 km in the latitude direction. The detailed system development and results will be presented at the conference.
Figure 1. Radar locations over the UAE and nowcast domain
https://colostate-my.sharepoint.com/:i:/g/personal/pachung_colostate_edu/EaizeZzaRHlPuFwNYAjFpJUBKWj6DsWxwYPDfJ9QGmsppg?e=Hb2gSC
Figure 2. CSI score of DARTS nowcast on 26 February 2017 from 1100 to 1200 UTC
https://colostate-my.sharepoint.com/:i:/g/personal/pachung_colostate_edu/EYWIBtghkxZAjC-NkJrygt0BTfwVQaXPqqPbeI2_dt8Gxw?e=3tnO2u
Figure 1. Radar locations over the UAE and nowcast domain
https://colostate-my.sharepoint.com/:i:/g/personal/pachung_colostate_edu/EaizeZzaRHlPuFwNYAjFpJUBKWj6DsWxwYPDfJ9QGmsppg?e=Hb2gSC
Figure 2. CSI score of DARTS nowcast on 26 February 2017 from 1100 to 1200 UTC
https://colostate-my.sharepoint.com/:i:/g/personal/pachung_colostate_edu/EYWIBtghkxZAjC-NkJrygt0BTfwVQaXPqqPbeI2_dt8Gxw?e=3tnO2u
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
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