11.3 Accurate Long Range Weather Forecasting & The Super Bowl Weather Forecast

Friday, 20 June 2014: 2:30 PM
Alpine Ballroom (Resort at Squaw Creek)
Gary Lezak, Overland Park, KS

Fifty days before the Super Bowl, Weather 2020 had the confidence to make a weather prediction for the Super Bowl in East Rutherford, NJ. And, then four weeks before the big game Weather 2020 issued a press release with an even more specific weather forecast, “NO SNOW WILL IMPACT THE SUPER BOWL”. And, it was taken a step further by forecasting temperatures warming into the 50s. And, the forecast verified. Was it luck, or skill? In meteorology today there is strong consensus that accurate specific weather forecasts can not be made beyond around five or seven days. We will show that this new technology allows this paradigm to not just be challenged, but also broken. Accurate weather forecasts from 5 days to 200 days into the future are being made right now! In this report we will go into the new weather forecasting method that was used to make the accurate weather prediction for the Super Bowl. There will be an introduction into Lezak's Recurring Cycle (LRC) and how we believe this is the best weather forecasting tool/method known in the field of meteorology today. Results, examples showing the accuracy of these weather forecasts will be shown, including the failures and the successes. We will discuss the stress involved, the computer models that came out with so many differing solutions, other forecasts that were made, and a discussion of how it all came together. 500 mb maps and surface maps will be used to show the cycling weather pattern. The weather pattern in early December was projected forward into Super Bowl week and we will show how this helped us make, what may be, the best weather forecast I have ever made. An accurate 50 day forecast! The weather pattern sets up every fall and then cycles through winter, spring, and summer before a new pattern evolves from late summer into the next fall. Knowledge of this cycling weather pattern allows the skilled weather forecaster to use this new technology to make accurate weather forecasts from day 1 to up to 200 days into the future or longer. Examples of these weather forecasts will be shown, with an emphasis on the Super Bowl weather prediction.
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