Ensembles: Everyone Gets It but Broadcasters

EVEN AFTER YEARS OF THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST COMMUNITY MAKING USE OF ENSEMBLES, THE BROADCAST COMMUNITY CONTINUES TO DRAG IT'S FEET. THE VENDORS HAVE BEEN ABSOLUTELY NO HELP IN THIS REGARD, AS THEY APPEAR TO DRINK THE CONSULTANT MANUFACTURED KOOL-AID. I'LL TAKE YET ANOTHER SHOT AT THIS, USING THE NEW YORK CITY FIASCO THIS PAST WINTER AS A CASE STUDY. MY HYPOTHESIS IS THAT ENSEMBLE DRIVEN MESSAGES WOULD HAVE HELPED EMERGENCY MANAGERS PLAN FOR THE WORST, WHILE HELPING THE PUBLIC TO UNDERSTAND THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. WE AS BROADCAST METEOROLOGISTS NEED TO LEAD THE WAY IN HELPING THE PUBLIC TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE VARYING LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER FORECASTS, AND HOW THEY CAN USE THAT INFORMATION TO THEIR ADVANTAGE.