Communicating Winter Weather Forecast Uncertainty

Communicating Winter Weather Forecast Uncertainty Frederick, George L, CCM, Dr. Gerald Mulvey, CCM University of the Incarnate Word, San Antonio TX

The weather and climate enterprise community has been urged to find ways to more effectively estimate and communicate uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts. This opportunity was highlighted in a recommendation of the 2003 NRC report Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Forecasts. Subsequently, a follow-on study by the NRC published in 2006 entitled Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts, laid out detailed recommendations on all aspects of the topic and urged an enterprise-wide response. A recent Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society entitled Weather Analysis and Forecasting, adopted on 25 March 2015, noted that “…Beyond improving the forecast itself, improvement in the communication and best use of forecast information is also needed…” The Statement goes on to say that “…Collaborative research with social scientists will also enable forecasters to codify best practices in forecasting philosophy, communication, and training amidst rapid technological change…”

Recent events such as the January 2015 winter storm that threatened New York City and the Northeast US with “record snowfall of historic proportions” and a March 2013 forecast snow event in the Washington DC area, termed by some as “snowquester”, have raised the specter that winter storm forecasting is in need of both improvement and better dialog on the uncertainties that are attendant in the forecasts. In both of these cases, major transportation hubs were shut down, residents were warned to stay in their homes and entire industries were shuttered. The resulting winter storms were not nearly as severe as forecast for certain cities nor were the expectations of the decisionmakers in those cities met. There are also many documented cases where winter storm conditions were “under forecast” and citizens, industry and government agencies were caught unawares with significant economic and safety impact. The impact of these perceived busted forecasts in areas of high population density and strong government involvement is felt across the entire weather and climate enterprise community. While we all know there is uncertainty in most weather and climate predictions, this information is often not properly conveyed to decisionmakers and the public at large. The AMS has established a Board of Best Practices that has undertaken the challenge of addressing this topic. A Drafting Committee of this Board is currently gathering information for proposing a “Best Practice” to be vetted with the community and published at some point in the future. This presentation will describe progress to date and solicit input from the Broadcast community.