7.2 An Update on Rainfall Prediction Products and Services from the Weather Prediction Center

Thursday, 16 June 2016: 10:45 AM
Phoenix North (DoubleTree by Hilton Austin Hotel)
Gregory W. Carbin, NOAA/NWS/WPC, College Park, MD; and D. Novak, M. Klein, P. Burke, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to move forward with science-based changes to its suite of quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) products. As the national center of expertise on precipitation forecasting, WPC also plays an important role in national collaboration ahead of heavy rainfall events. This presentation will provide broadcast meteorologists a review of WPC products including Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions, and Day 1 through 7 QPFs, in light of recent significant rainfall/flooding events. With improvements in precipitation forecasts across temporal and spatial scales, and the application of ensemble methods, further enhancements to WPC products and services are planned. Future probabilistic guidance, and challenges in anticipating heavy precipitation impacts, and conveying the risks, will also be discussed.
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