Learning Lessons: The Impact of Integrated Warning Team Post-Event Reviews on NWS Decision Support Services

Forecasting winter precipitation in the Southern Plains can be exceptionally challenging, as are the forecast-based decisions that must be made by emergency management and public safety officials. Two winter storms - 7-8 December, 2018 and 3 January, 2019 - affected parts of the Southern Plains with varying levels of forecast success. Forecasts of significant winter precipitation for parts of Oklahoma and north Texas did not verify with the December storm, but verified better for the January storm.

Meteorologists used the less-than-optimal outcome of 7-8 December 2018 event forecast as a learning (internal) and a teaching (external) opportunity. On 12 December, representatives from the seven impacted NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) and the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) conducted a collaborative after action review meeting to review what went wrong and what could be improved in the future. Similar successful internal rapid assessment reviews have been conducted over the past couple of years and provide an opportunity for forecasters to compare notes, learn from the experience, and hopefully use those lessons to improve our services.

On 20 December, WFO Norman followed up the internal review with an externally-focused after action review meeting including our Integrated Warning Team (IWT) partners in emergency management, public safety, and the broadcast media. This meeting, a first at WFO Norman, gave NWS forecasters the chance to explain the forecast process and the specific challenges with the 7-8 December event.

A second winter storm on 3 January provided forecasters with an opportunity to put into practice some of the lessons learned from the December event. This presentation will discuss the after action review process and some of the lessons learned, particularly those related to risk perception and forecasts.