Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watches: Navigating Effective Communication Between Fire Managers, Forecasters and the Public Audiences

A Red Flag Warning (RFW) is a term that has been used since the 1960s by NWS fire weather forecasters to alert forecast users to an ongoing or imminent critical fire weather pattern. The original intent was to alert land management agencies about the onset of critical weather and fuel moisture conditions that could lead to rapid or dramatic increases in wildfire activity, impacting firefighter safety. Through time, however, several issues with this system have evolved. There is now a strong concern amongst NWS and fire agency personnel that the Red Flag Warning is not an effective messaging medium. As a result of these issues and questions, the NOAA RISA California Nevada Applications Program (CNAP), working with the National Wildfire Coordinating Group, Fire Environment Committee (FENC) and the NWS Fire Weather Program office are collaborating on an assessment of this forecast product with the fire management community. Preliminary research focused on 1) does the fire management community view a RFW as a safety or a resource management product? 2) What kind of product could be disseminated that would change fire management and public actions? This presentation will focus on initial results from the project and the challenges in addressing these issues.