Decision Making Consequences of the Episodic and Catastrophic

Relentless fires in the west, debris flows, mudslides, and in the south and the east, tropical storms bringing unprecedented rains, gusting winds, and rapid erosion of the infra-structure of our cities, town, and roadways highlight the need for more detailed and careful attention to how people think about episodic events and how this filters information leading to decision making. The increase in the extremity of natural events seems to mean that exiting before the worst occurs is the best line of defense in or efforts to save human lives. So, when to call for evacuation and how to do so (to say nothing of how to organize and conduct evacuations) is a pressing problem.

By examining prior research about evacuations, reviewing evacuation training materials, and incorporating data from recent extreme events, the author will aim to identify key lessons learned, gaps in the existing literature, and fresh perspectives from recent data. Some guiding questions include:

1. How can communities identify individuals and groups who face daunting barriers to evacuating?
2. Can the factors elemental to decision-making about evacuation be placed into a hierarchy or can a formula (of sorts) be developed regarding the weighting of an identified set of factors?
3. Which elements of message design are crucial to clearly communicating the need to evacuate to individuals and families?
4. Does timing of messaging play a pivotal role in evacuation decision making?
5. Can evacuation be meaningfully divided into smaller behavioral stages?
6. Do media images of evacuees play a role in decision making?
7. Is there a post-evacuation narrative?

Moreover, messaging about natural hazards occurs as a part of larger network of social discourses, and needs to be understood in that context as well as at the individual, contextual, cultural, and system levels. Increasing our understanding about evacuation decision making will help to illuminate the weather warning process.