Two major studies involving the development of rip currents along the coastal waters of Florida have been presented during the 1990's. These studies were conducted by NWSFO Miami (Lushine 1991), and by NWSFO Melbourne ( Lascody 1998). The conception of these studies arose from the fact that drownings attributed to rip currents along Florida beaches had, in previous years, exceeded deaths due to the combination of hurricanes, tornadoes, lightning, and floods. The studies found a correlation between rip current development and weather patterns. Empirical forecasting techniques were developed that would aid in the prediction of days in which rip currents were more likely to occur. Even though deaths due to rip currents have been documented along most of the Florida coastline, these two studies focused on factors that are pertinent to the east coast of Florida. Our study will focus on factors relevant to the Gulf of Mexico, in particular the eastern Florida panhandle, while incorporating parameters known to enhance rip current potential.

Since documented deaths related to rip currents along the Florida Panhandle are not as numerous as those along the east coast of Florida, a statistical study was not feasible. Therefore, subjective correlations were developed between weather/oceanic factors and the days in which deaths occurred. Meteorological and oceanographic similarities among the days involved were analyzed, and a set of forecasting guidelines was established in order to predict days that have a greater probability of rip current development, much like the procedures used at NWSFOs Miami and Melbourne. This information can then be relayed to various emergency management and/or beach patrol agencies via issuances of the early morning Hazardous Weather Outlook product.