A first generation nowcast/forecast system (called PWS/NFS) has been established for the circulation of Prince William Sound, Alaska. Experience with PWS/NFS over the past two years, results from related validation and process studies, and evolutionary upgrades are summarized.

PWS/NFS utilizes the Princeton Ocean Model(POM), as imple- mented on a 1 km grid and 15 sigma levels. It is driven by synoptic wind-forcing (NDBC buoy and NCEP Eta winds), monthly climatological heating and runoff, and eight tidal constituents. It is verified against NOS coastal sea level at Valdez and SST at an NDBC buoy.

Perhaps the greatest uncertainity in forcing is associated with open boundary conditions for flow and mass fields at the two major passages to Prince William Sound. To address the open boundary conditon issue, experiments in data assimilation and with a larger domain have been conducted and are described here.