Change Matters

Change Matters

Saving a life from a weather threat is like entering online sweepstakes, where you submit as many tickets as possible to increase your chances. But then you never hear who won, or even if the drawing ever took place!

Similarities exist in extreme weather communication. Broadcast meteorologists can do everything they believe is right to protect life and property but may rarely see the fruit of their labor. And often, only the number of injuries or fatalities makes the headlines.

Recent social science research has confirmed that an anchoring bias leads to a perception of an inaccurate forecast. Even worse, anchoring can be linked to the public inadequately preparing for a worst-case scenario. Commodity (and very popular) weather apps confuse the audience further by applying a deterministic approach at the hyperlocal level without conveying uncertainty or temporal trends.

Weather communicators can help their audience overcome this bias by sharing how a particular risk has changed. A delta value or trend displayed next to a deterministic or probabilistic forecast can serve two purposes: 1) Inform a first-time viewer/user of their current level of risk in context with prior updates, and 2) Encourage more vigilance with future updates to track changes in the particular risk over time.

The presenter will provide substantive examples of how this concept could have been communicated in recent weather disasters to improve understanding of forecast changes and how they can affect response. The idea could then be used to fill communication gaps between official product issuances or model updates during critical decision-making windows. Suggestions on incorporating this into a weather presentation more consistently will be shared, including examples of its potential efficacy even on clear weather days.