11i.4 Advancements in Climate Change Attribution Science

Friday, 23 June 2023: 4:15 PM
Sonoran Sky Ballroom Salon 5 (Arizona Grand Resort & Spa )
Andrew Pershing, Climate CEntral, Lawrence, NJ; and L. M. Casey

Proposed session: 60 minute panel discussion including 3-4 scientific and communication experts

Requested session date: 21 June 2023

Presenters: Pershing and additional experts to be confirmed

Human-driven climate change is causing a vast range of weather events to become more frequent and intense, impacting lives and our livelihoods. Over the past decade, trusted media messengers have operated within a paradigm that restricts the direct connection between an individual extreme weather event and climate change. The rapid evolution of climate change attribution science has shifted this paradigm.

Climate change attribution studies calculate the degree to which a specific weather event was made more or less likely or, in some cases, more or less intense because of climate change. This presentation is intended to brief broadcast meteorologists on the state of this rapidly evolving field, and to show that in many cases we can – and arguably should – connect the dots between extreme weather events and climate change. And even if a direct, quantitative assessment is not available, it is often possible to characterize the climate change context around the event.

Additionally, climate change attribution science, in its current state, is capable of going beyond extreme weather. Groundbreaking air temperature attribution tools provide data that can support the communication of real-time estimates of how human-driven climate change has changed the likelihood of daily weather events anywhere in the world.

Through this presentation, we seek to equip attendees with the foundation of attribution science, how to apply this emerging science to real-life impacts, and the visual tools that will enable these trusted messengers to confidently engage in climate attribution conversations with their viewers.

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