How Emergency Managers and Broadcast Meteorologists Receive, Use and Communicate Wildfire Forecasts and National Weather Service Fire Weather Products: A Preliminary Study in the Southern Plains

In response to two destructive wildfires in Oklahoma in 2023, the Norman, OK National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecast office issued official Fire Warnings to help warn and evacuate the public. The office used a novel integrated warning team fire procedure, in which forecasters initially sent a “potentially dangerous wildfire detected” hotspot notification (ascertained by GOES-16 satellite imagery) to the Oklahoma Forestry Service (OFS). Upon receiving notification, OFS confirmed the extent of the potential wildfires with local emergency management and then requested the issuance of the Fire Warnings by the NWS. Under this procedure, evacuations occurred successfully and no lives were lost in either wildfire. Questions remained following the fires, such as exactly how the Fire Warnings were received, communicated and acted upon, particularly by partners in emergency management and broadcast meteorology.

To address these questions and learn more about how partners generally use NWS wildfire forecast and product information, researchers developed two surveys for both emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists. Other survey topics included fire weather forecasting sources, active wildfire operations, and usefulness of NWS products for risk communication. Both surveys consisted of multiple choice, Likert scale and open-ended qualitative questions. Researchers distributed the surveys to partners in jurisdictions and television markets in Oklahoma and north Texas in the fall and winter of 2023-24.

Survey results indicate that most respondents feel their areas of responsibility are at high or extreme risk of wildfire (71%) and that NWS products are very or extremely critical to operations (82%). Results from a thematic analysis of qualitative data reveal more detailed information about preparedness actions, as well as communication of NWS fire weather products to the public. Researchers will share additional results and plans for future survey expansion.