Probabilistic Atmospheric River Forecast Products at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a large role on the hydroclimate of the Western United States, leading to nearly 84% of flood damages (up to 99% in key areas) while also providing 30–60% of the regions water supplies. It is due to their hazardous and beneficial impacts that ARs have emerged as a subject of broad interest not only in the scientific community, but also with water managers, emergency managers, media, the public, and policy makers and has led to the need for concise methods for conveying the spectrum of outcomes faced by communities during a particular AR event. The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, in collaboration with numerous agencies, has developed several AR specific forecast products that assist in the presentation and communication of risk, uncertainty, and confidence prior to and during an AR event. This presentation will cover products like the AR Landfall tool and AR Scale and how they can be utilized in the forecast and communication of ARs.