Understanding Extreme Hydrologic Events in the Caribbean

Recent studies demonstrate that droughts and floods are extreme climate events which are more vulnerable to rapid change than the mean climate. Because a large number of people are affected by these costly natural disasters, it is critical to not only monitor them but also to be capable of predicting their variability.

The overall goal of this study is to expand the body of knowledge about the characteristics, manifestation, and causes of extreme weather events in the Caribbean in order to significantly reduce the risks that they represent. Toward this end, this study includes two main evaluations: (1) to assess the effect of climate variability on the intensity and frequency of natural disasters (especially droughts and floods) and (2) to assess the number of people exposed to environmental threats. In this study GRUMP gridded population data of 30arc-second resolution, SRTM elevation data of 3arc-second resolution and precipitation data from stations (Global Historical Climatology Network, GHCN, from NOAA) are combined and analyzed in this first phase. Temperature, soil type and land use/land cover data will be incorporated in the analysis. The preliminary results of this study will be presented at the Fifth Educational and Science Forum.