Error analysis of PSU/NCAR MM5 forecasts in southern California

In southern California, climate, hydrology, soils, topography and vegetation community composition are closely linked. The climate of the region includes moderate to high seasonal temperatures, winter precipitation and summer drought. The most abundant type of vegetation in the region is chaparral, which includes a suite of vegetation communities adapted to extended periods of little to no precipitation, high summer temperatures and, most importantly, frequent wildfires. Catastrophic wildfires attest to the destructive potential and high social cost of wildfire along the wildland/urban interface. Weather forecasts at high spatial resolution are critical to monitor and predict potentially dangerous conditions for wildfire spread. The University of California at Santa Barbara in collaboration with the USDA Forest Service at Riverside use the PSU/NCAR MM5 model to run high resolution forecasts (4 km grid spacing) twice a day. This poster presentation will discuss forecast errors in the UCSB MM5 products and their potential impacts on wildfire monitoring in Southern California.