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Large spatial and seasonal variations in HI are evident from the climatology. The persistence of HI values ≥ 5 can be used to illustrate some of these variations. In eastern North America, the annual average persistence of HI values ≥ 5 (calculated using the low version of the index) is only 1-2 days except for the southern Mississippi Valley and western Gulf coast where the average persistence increases to 3-5 days. Little seasonal variation is evident. In central North America, HI values ≥ 5 (calculated using the mid version of the index) are more persistent, and seasonal variations are more pronounced. Annual average run lengths vary from 2-3 days in the eastern portion of this area to close to 6 days in the western Plains. Large index values are considerably more persistent in summer when the mean run length exceeds 10 days in the western Plains. In western North America, average run lengths of HI values ≥ 5 (calculated using the high version of the index) are longest (> 3 days) in the Great Basin. During summer, the mean run length in this area increases to 6-7 days. In contrast, mean run lengths in the Pacific Northwest are generally shorter than 2 days throughout the year. These findings, along with those for the additional statistical measures included in the electronic atlas, can provide fire managers with useful information for interpreting and evaluating wildfire forecasts.
Supplementary URL: http://www.haines.geo.msu.edu