Predicting Lightning Strikes for the Enhancement of Fire Weather Forecasts

Abstract:

Predicting lightning occurrence is of significant value in fire weather forecasting. Over sixty percent of the wildfires that occur every year in the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming are started by lightning strikes. Using logistic regression techniques and ten-year databases of upper atmospheric sounding-derived parameters and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, an equation is developed to predict the probability of one or more lightning strikes occurring in the vicinity of Rapid City. This probability is calculated daily for different months of the year during the normal convective season that occurs from March and continues through October. A computer program analyzes the 12Z morning sounding from Rapid City to update the equation predictors and daily probability. In addition, persistence of lightning and several other sounding-derived parameters are used as predictors to calculate the probability of a lightning strike. The output is being used experimentally during the 2005 wildfire season to help in improving the accuracy of local fire weather forecasts.