Atmospheric teleconnections and wildfires in the southeastern United States

Fire managers must attempt to optimize their use of resources in the face of tremendous uncertainty. Seasonal assessments of fire season severity are becoming an integral part of the resource allocation and preparedness planning process. The Florida Division of Forestry was a pioneer in using climate data for fire season planning as they noticed a relationship between ENSO's cold phase and severe fire seasons in the early 1990s and started issuing seasonal forecasts of fire potential. While the forecasts were effective in preparing managers for potentially bad fire seasons, it was found that not all cold episodes were equal and the magnitude of the cold anomaly did not directly related to just how bad the fire season would be. ENSO is the dominant climate oscillation influencing Florida and other gulf coast states, but other oscillations, such as the North Atlantic (NAO) and Pacific North American (PNA), also play roles in determining the climatic conditions and can moderate or enhance conditions driven by ENSO. This paper explores the relationship of these other climate oscillations to fire activity in Florida and the other southeastern states.