Climate, fire and human extremes—the merging of shaping factors for 21st century land management

Recent reports and observations of fire behavior, area burned, and suppression costs suggest that land managers may have entered a new era of extremes. Fire management today is shaped by three factors – climate, past management practices, and current land use activities and expectations. These factors, though connected, have until recently been on parallel tracks. It is argued in this paper that these factors are now merging, particularly in their extremes, thus highlighting a necessary paradigm shift in fire tactics, strategic planning and policy. Evidence will be provided indicating a return to pre-suppression fire levels resulting from this merger. This paper will provide examples of extremes in fire, discuss the roles of climate and humans as shaping factors for extremes, and discuss management implications given climate and fire extremes in the 21st century.