Development of model output statistic (MOS) products for predictive services

In 2004, Southern California Predictive Services developed the 7-day significant fire potential product, which by 2006 is anticipated to be operational nationwide. Necessary input for this product includes Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) point 10-day forecasts of fire weather, time-lag fuel moisture and National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indices for selected locations. In the first phase of the project, model output statistic (MOS) equations were developed for over 200 RAWS in California and Rocky Mountain Predictive Services areas using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model output. In a second phase of the project currently underway, MOS equations are being developed for four more Predictive Services geographic areas. MOS output includes twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) tabular 10-day forecasts and meteograms. This paper describes the development of the MOS equations and their use in a value-added product for fire management.