A Perfect Storm?—Population Growth, Climate Change and the Urban Environment

Projections for global population growth indicate that cities will continue to grow rapidly at the expense of rural areas, much in the way that population patterns have already changed since the mid-1980s. Urban growth will continue both in the developed and developing regions, with much of the urban growth focused in coastal cities. At the same time, there is compelling evidence that our climate is changing – in large part as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions of radiatively important trace (greenhouse) gases. Computer model projections indicate these changes will continue for the foreseeable future, pending significant reductions in human-produced emissions. Changes in climate will be accompanied by changes in weather, and the need for weather -- and weather-related -- forecasts and predictions will be even more important in the future than they already are today. However, urban weather forecasts and warnings are not well matched to the needs of accurate and precise, high-resolution weather predictions in today's cities (let alone the mega-cities of tomorrow).

The impending “perfect storm” of urban population growth and climate and weather changes has serious implications for public safety. Public agencies, non-governmental organizations and private industry will need to come together to implement advanced regional multi-hazard environmental warning systems to facilitate markedly improved adaptation and mitigation strategies to effectively cope with threats of hazardous weather, air quality, flooding and human health in a changing world.