Climate Change and New York City

The New York metropolitan region faces a variety of potential threats due to climate change. A robust climate change scenario assessment framework has been developed to identify risks, and an adaptation assessment framework has been devised to facilitate responses to climate change.

The climate change scenario assessment framework is based on several components. Probabilistic 21st Century projections are generated using output from state-of-the coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Models (GCMs) forced by three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The outputs are then downscaled to spatial and temporal scales relevant for risk assessment and adaptation response.

Based on the climate scenario framework, increasing temperatures are expected to bring heat waves of increased frequency, intensity, and duration in the New York region. Sea level rise will dramatically reduce coastal flooding recurrence intervals, even if storm intensity remains unchanged. More extreme rainfall flooding might threaten drinking water quality and lead to increased coastal pollution. The long-term possibility of increased warm season drought could lead to water shortages.

We are developing an Urban Atmosphere Observatory, which is a mesonet that can be used to calibrate and validate improved regional climate models for down-scaling future projections.

We are working with New York City agencies on the incorporation of the scenario framework into long-term planning for the region.