Urbanized mesoscale coastal modeling and ensemble approaches

The current state-of-the-science in urbanized coastal mesoscale modeling will be discussed. The emphasis will be on implementations of advanced formulations in operational and research and development (R&D) urban mesoscale models specifically applicable to coastal regions. Because of the important impact of the air-land-sea interface and related physical processes on coastal urban predictability, coupling of urbanized mesoscale models to land surface models (LSM), 3-D ocean models and ocean wave models will be discussed. Results from high-resolution coupled mesoscale model simulations will be shown that emphasize the importance of proper characterization of ocean surface forcing to be able to accurately predict the coastal atmospheric environment. The differences in model simulations for diverse geographical areas such as metropolitan New York City, the southeastern US, and Korea will be discussed. The future applicability of mesoscale urban ensembles using multi-model, perturbed physics, and stochastic perturbation techniques will also be discussed.